美股市場狀態與 AI 投資週期週報

系統性風險燈號 (Systemic Risk Semaphore)

ORANGE

主因利率觸發；信用、波動尚未確認系統性壓力。

US 10YEAR Treasury Yield >= 5.0% (當前: 5.01) [TRIGGERED] 10Y Real Yield (TIPS, DFII10) >= 2.5% (當前: 2.61) [TRIGGERED]

AI Market Environment & CapEx Pressure Index

75.4 / 100 normalized Partial coverage (5/6 factors)

原始得分：64.1 / 85.0 available (可用因子正規化計算)
因子覆蓋率：85.0% (1 not yet wired) • 狀態：VALID

註：依 ADR 0003 規範，當因子覆蓋率未達 100% 時禁止跨期直接比較正規化總分，比較應以原始得分與因子明細為準。

US 10Y Treasury Yield

5.01%

Treasury Par Yield • 2026-09-18

10Y Real Yield (TIPS)

2.61%

FRED DFII10 • 2026-09-17

US High Yield Spread (OAS)

2.70%

FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 • 2026-09-17

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

15.44

CBOE VIX Close • 2026-09-17

Index 因子結構拆解 (Canonical Components)

Capex Intensity 13.1 / 20

87.03397321125% → 87.03% * 0.15 = 13.1 pts

Rate Pressure 15.0 / 20

5.01% → >= 4.7%

Credit Complacency 13.0 / 15

2.7% → <= 2.8%

Market Concentration 15.0 / 15

33.06% → >= 32.0%

Demand Scissor Gap — / 15

指標尚未接入 (Not yet wired)

Volatility Sentiment 8.0 / 15

15.44index_points → <= 17.0

4 Cloud Giants 現金壓力 (Research-Defined FCF)

MSFT

+19.6B

META

+1.7B

GOOGL

-5.9B

AMZN

-8.8B

口徑說明：Research-Defined FCF = OCF − CapEx。Core Hyperscalers 固定為 MSFT、GOOGL、AMZN、META；各公司數值與期間依 Snapshot AVAILABLE outcome 呈現，缺失與不可比狀態詳見第 5 節。此為研究自定義 FCF，非公司公布之官方／non-GAAP 自由現金流。

前期變動追蹤 (Changes Since Prior Report)

未指定前期報告比較基準 (--prior-report 未傳入)

深度研究報告與審計底稿 (Expandable Research Sections)

1. 前期變動追蹤與重要事件 (Changes & Critical Events) Section 1, 12

1. 執行摘要與總體市場狀態 (Executive Summary & Macro Regime)

系統性風險燈號: ORANGE • 主因利率觸發；信用、波動尚未確認系統性壓力。

AI Market Environment & CapEx Pressure Index: 75.4 / 100 (狀態: VALID)

12. Top 5 關鍵事件 (Top 5 Critical Events)

目前 payload 無可呈現事件 (Events not provided in current payload)。

2. 總體經濟健康、信用結構與市場波動 (Macro, Credit & Volatility) Section 2, 3, 4

2. 總體經濟健康檢查 (Macroeconomic Health Check)

指標名稱 / ID	實體	維度	數值	觀測日 / 期間	狀態	來源	備註 / 口徑
US 10YEAR Treasury Yield `us_10y_yield`	-	-	5.01 %	2026-09-18	VERIFIED	U.S. Department of the Treasury `BC_10YEAR` [來源連結]	U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve indicative market quotation at 15:30 EST
10Y Real Yield (TIPS, DFII10) `us_10y_real_yield`	-	-	2.61 %	2026-09-17	VERIFIED	FRED `DFII10` [來源連結]	Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Inflation-Indexed (DFII10, FRED H.15)
Calculation Consistency Check (same-source) `us_10y_real_yield_synthetic`	-	-	2.61 %	2026-09-17	VERIFIED	FRED `FRED:DGS10 - FRED:T10YIE`	cross-check only; never used as fallback or scoring input. Synthetic = DGS10 - T10YIE on same observation_date.

特徵名稱 / 基準	實體	數值	視窗	觀測日 (Lag)	狀態	計算方法	Lineage
change_4w `us_10y_yield`	-	27.0 bps	4W	2026-09-18 (0d)	VERIFIED	explicit difference (% to bps) between 2026-09-18 and 2026-08-21 (28 days span)	`["us_10y_yield"]`
synthetic_divergence `us_10y_real_yield`	-	0.0 bps	-	2026-09-17 (1d)	VERIFIED	canonical DFII10 (2.61%) - synthetic DGS10-T10YIE (2.61%) = 0.0 bps on 2026-09-17; within 25 bps threshold; cross-check only, not scoring input	`["FRED:DFII10:2026-09-17","FRED:DGS10:2026-09-17","FRED:T10YIE:2026-09-17"]`

3. 信用利差快照 (Credit Spread Snapshot)

範圍說明：本章目前僅涵蓋高收益債利差 (HY OAS) 快照，完整信用體系與融資流動性結構尚未接入。

指標名稱 / ID	實體	維度	數值	觀測日 / 期間	狀態	來源	備註 / 口徑
ICE BofA US High Yield Index OAS `us_hy_oas`	-	-	2.7 %	2026-09-17	VERIFIED	FRED `BAMLH0A0HYM2` [來源連結]	Option-Adjusted Spread over Treasury spot curve

特徵名稱 / 基準	實體	數值	視窗	觀測日 (Lag)	狀態	計算方法	Lineage
change_4w `us_hy_oas`	-	-5.0 bps	4W	2026-09-17 (1d)	VERIFIED	explicit difference (% to bps) between 2026-09-17 and 2026-08-20 (28 days span)	`["us_hy_oas"]`
percentile_3y `us_hy_oas`	-	0.1131 ratio	3Y	2026-09-17 (1d)	VERIFIED	empirical percentile across 787 observations (1094 days span)	`["us_hy_oas"]`

4. 市場波動度快照 (Market Volatility Snapshot)

範圍說明：本章目前僅涵蓋市場波動度 (VIX) 快照，市場寬度、參與度與均線排列等結構指標尚未接入。

指標名稱 / ID	實體	維度	數值	觀測日 / 期間	狀態	來源	備註 / 口徑
CBOE Volatility Index Close `vix_close`	-	-	15.44 index_points	2026-09-17	VERIFIED	CBOE `VIX` [來源連結]	30-day implied volatility of S&P 500 options from official daily closing history

特徵名稱 / 基準	實體	數值	視窗	觀測日 (Lag)	狀態	計算方法	Lineage
change_4w `vix_close`	-	-0.57 index_points	4W	2026-09-17 (1d)	VERIFIED	explicit difference (index_points to index_points) between 2026-09-17 and 2026-08-20 (28 days span)	`["vix_close"]`

3. Hyperscaler 資本支出與 AI 週期 (Hyperscaler Capex & Unit Economics) Section 5, 8

5. Hyperscaler 資本支出與 AI 週期 (Hyperscaler Capex & AI Cycle)

指標名稱 / ID	實體	維度	數值	觀測日 / 期間	狀態	來源	備註 / 口徑
MSFT capex (reported) `capex`	MSFT	{"snapshot_field":"capex_reported","snapshot_status":"AVAILABLE"}	115.948 USD_B	2026-06-30 (2025-07-01 ~ 2026-06-30) [FY2026Q4]	VERIFIED	SEC EDGAR via AI CapEx Snapshot `sec:c8007f9e1d2d26266c66a1dcc48ab4059537d8dd99de79970fe7806e824a0731`	Snapshot consumer projection; retrieved_at is projection as-of marker, not source retrieval time
MSFT ocf (reported) `ocf`	MSFT	{"snapshot_field":"ocf_reported","snapshot_status":"AVAILABLE"}	182.935 USD_B	2026-06-30 (2025-07-01 ~ 2026-06-30) [FY2026Q4]	VERIFIED	SEC EDGAR via AI CapEx Snapshot `sec:378dcf11ecf96bf81ee4a8fa7d60567647abb4080b4ed92239425fb046fc6e95`	Snapshot consumer projection; retrieved_at is projection as-of marker, not source retrieval time
MSFT depreciation (reported) `depreciation`	MSFT	{"snapshot_field":"depreciation_reported","snapshot_status":"AVAILABLE"}	34.3 USD_B	2026-06-30 (2025-07-01 ~ 2026-06-30) [FY2026Q4]	VERIFIED	SEC EDGAR via AI CapEx Snapshot `sec:c37249fc205ce9fec85a09f9c31c841707e7c4b27930c1986095fe4f6fd3d152`	Snapshot consumer projection; retrieved_at is projection as-of marker, not source retrieval time
GOOGL capex (reported) `capex`	GOOGL	{"snapshot_field":"capex_reported","snapshot_status":"AVAILABLE"}	80.598 USD_B	2026-06-30 (2026-01-01 ~ 2026-06-30) [FY2026Q2]	VERIFIED	SEC EDGAR via AI CapEx Snapshot `sec:e1cfa0c50ccbaffc9fcd7c326dec6c406300dfdaab5d7b138c8837ecda115740`	Snapshot consumer projection; retrieved_at is projection as-of marker, not source retrieval time
GOOGL ocf (reported) `ocf`	GOOGL	{"snapshot_field":"ocf_reported","snapshot_status":"AVAILABLE"}	84.859 USD_B	2026-06-30 (2026-01-01 ~ 2026-06-30) [FY2026Q2]	VERIFIED	SEC EDGAR via AI CapEx Snapshot `sec:5f4421ba6497029d8e1276a42ecbe9c01880d9dbe111b576a37c892ac136183b`	Snapshot consumer projection; retrieved_at is projection as-of marker, not source retrieval time
GOOGL depreciation (reported) `depreciation`	GOOGL	{"snapshot_field":"depreciation_reported","snapshot_status":"AVAILABLE"}	13.586 USD_B	2026-06-30 (2026-01-01 ~ 2026-06-30) [FY2026Q2]	VERIFIED	SEC EDGAR via AI CapEx Snapshot `sec:f398acede8ba0a6651e03115e1ed93a3c24084b9a2d3915d4885dd9d73717199`	Snapshot consumer projection; retrieved_at is projection as-of marker, not source retrieval time
AMZN depreciation (reported) `depreciation`	AMZN	{"snapshot_field":"depreciation_reported","snapshot_status":"AVAILABLE"}	26.703 USD_B	2026-06-30 (2026-01-01 ~ 2026-06-30) [FY2026Q2]	VERIFIED	SEC EDGAR via AI CapEx Snapshot `sec:336f9780437b78965a09a9e53ce24a55b80b69eacac9e2fccb7c4b4d791e72bf`	Snapshot consumer projection; retrieved_at is projection as-of marker, not source retrieval time
META capex (reported) `capex`	META	{"snapshot_field":"capex_reported","snapshot_status":"AVAILABLE"}	49.113 USD_B	2026-06-30 (2026-01-01 ~ 2026-06-30) [FY2026Q2]	VERIFIED	SEC EDGAR via AI CapEx Snapshot `sec:06ee3b696df43c5d6426d4ee15b2391c5e2d0d0cda45072f94acc98b65520117`	Snapshot consumer projection; retrieved_at is projection as-of marker, not source retrieval time
META ocf (reported) `ocf`	META	{"snapshot_field":"ocf_reported","snapshot_status":"AVAILABLE"}	64.088 USD_B	2026-06-30 (2026-01-01 ~ 2026-06-30) [FY2026Q2]	VERIFIED	SEC EDGAR via AI CapEx Snapshot `sec:3a5a1a9f5fa381e3769754b88434c1d16f6dc49a0a078714d7a94feacd10e185`	Snapshot consumer projection; retrieved_at is projection as-of marker, not source retrieval time
META da (reported) `da`	META	{"snapshot_field":"da_reported","snapshot_status":"AVAILABLE"}	12.355 USD_B	2026-06-30 (2026-01-01 ~ 2026-06-30) [FY2026Q2]	VERIFIED	SEC EDGAR via AI CapEx Snapshot `sec:86f75e7ccf0ce5523fc9c1af9d7d7eca1f9cd7d2e975309aca5451288e33ed1c`	Snapshot consumer projection; retrieved_at is projection as-of marker, not source retrieval time
META depreciation (reported) `depreciation`	META	{"snapshot_field":"depreciation_reported","snapshot_status":"AVAILABLE"}	11.67 USD_B	2026-06-30 (2026-01-01 ~ 2026-06-30) [FY2026Q2]	VERIFIED	SEC EDGAR via AI CapEx Snapshot `sec:9409499e93767dd599cf8c7260c50c156ec3db7f7f2ca0989248cd002ddc04dc`	Snapshot consumer projection; retrieved_at is projection as-of marker, not source retrieval time

特徵名稱 / 基準	實體	數值	視窗	觀測日 (Lag)	狀態	計算方法	Lineage
standalone_quarter (capex) `capex`	MSFT	35.802 USD_B	-	2026-06-30 (80d)	VERIFIED	AI CapEx Snapshot capex-v1; derived_quarter; AVAILABLE.quantity projection	`["sec:43ba668f79a8390de9bfc9964a6c835d002a1de9284d7c7563eef6e74d92b45c","sec:c8007f9e1d2d26266c66a1dcc48ab4059537d8dd99de79970fe7806e824a0731"]`
standalone_quarter (ocf) `ocf`	MSFT	55.441 USD_B	-	2026-06-30 (80d)	VERIFIED	AI CapEx Snapshot capex-v1; derived_quarter; AVAILABLE.quantity projection	`["sec:378dcf11ecf96bf81ee4a8fa7d60567647abb4080b4ed92239425fb046fc6e95","sec:bdc3f08d97abe3d99c883a0434a1b89ebd5c9e672c5ff64818be0db823032495"]`
standalone_quarter (depreciation) `depreciation`	MSFT	10.3 USD_B	-	2026-06-30 (80d)	VERIFIED	AI CapEx Snapshot capex-v1; derived_quarter; AVAILABLE.quantity projection	`["sec:29ea4ae8644f126ed4a010690cde1a629e6a7112b4fa695bcab3e494c0d3e798","sec:c37249fc205ce9fec85a09f9c31c841707e7c4b27930c1986095fe4f6fd3d152"]`
growth_yoy (capex) `capex`	MSFT	109.625856314773 %	-	2026-06-30 (80d)	VERIFIED	AI CapEx Snapshot capex-v1; derived; AVAILABLE.quantity projection	`["sec:1a5dfeb790e9d8ef780a8d9873887ac5f0a507a07a36dcc0117da0c203b9d4be","sec:43ba668f79a8390de9bfc9964a6c835d002a1de9284d7c7563eef6e74d92b45c","sec:9ebdcc0353a5354479e8c9690d45222d3045555731957e5c8e80998bdf322f72","sec:c8007f9e1d2d26266c66a1dcc48ab4059537d8dd99de79970fe7806e824a0731","MSFT.capex_quarter"]`
fcf_ocf_minus_capex (fcf_ocf_minus_capex) `fcf_ocf_minus_capex`	MSFT	19.639 USD_B	-	2026-06-30 (80d)	VERIFIED	AI CapEx Snapshot capex-v1; derived; AVAILABLE.quantity projection	`["sec:378dcf11ecf96bf81ee4a8fa7d60567647abb4080b4ed92239425fb046fc6e95","sec:43ba668f79a8390de9bfc9964a6c835d002a1de9284d7c7563eef6e74d92b45c","sec:bdc3f08d97abe3d99c883a0434a1b89ebd5c9e672c5ff64818be0db823032495","sec:c8007f9e1d2d26266c66a1dcc48ab4059537d8dd99de79970fe7806e824a0731","MSFT.capex_quarter","MSFT.ocf_quarter"]`
capex_to_ocf_ratio (capex_to_ocf_ratio) `capex_to_ocf_ratio`	MSFT	0.645767572735 ratio	-	2026-06-30 (80d)	VERIFIED	AI CapEx Snapshot capex-v1; derived; AVAILABLE.quantity projection	`["sec:378dcf11ecf96bf81ee4a8fa7d60567647abb4080b4ed92239425fb046fc6e95","sec:43ba668f79a8390de9bfc9964a6c835d002a1de9284d7c7563eef6e74d92b45c","sec:bdc3f08d97abe3d99c883a0434a1b89ebd5c9e672c5ff64818be0db823032495","sec:c8007f9e1d2d26266c66a1dcc48ab4059537d8dd99de79970fe7806e824a0731","MSFT.capex_quarter","MSFT.ocf_quarter"]`
standalone_quarter (capex) `capex`	GOOGL	44.924 USD_B	-	2026-06-30 (80d)	VERIFIED	AI CapEx Snapshot capex-v1; derived_quarter; AVAILABLE.quantity projection	`["sec:d945341977f1fdcbff7b0521332cee3fcd4cc70cdbc35b20d38194cda7305c1d","sec:e1cfa0c50ccbaffc9fcd7c326dec6c406300dfdaab5d7b138c8837ecda115740"]`
standalone_quarter (ocf) `ocf`	GOOGL	39.069 USD_B	-	2026-06-30 (80d)	VERIFIED	AI CapEx Snapshot capex-v1; derived_quarter; AVAILABLE.quantity projection	`["sec:5f4421ba6497029d8e1276a42ecbe9c01880d9dbe111b576a37c892ac136183b","sec:93b4babd5b15f78e79851242ef55c95cc9fcfc076fe6c6f596ff0b4a053fb91f"]`
standalone_quarter (depreciation) `depreciation`	GOOGL	7.104 USD_B	-	2026-06-30 (80d)	VERIFIED	AI CapEx Snapshot capex-v1; derived_quarter; AVAILABLE.quantity projection	`["sec:3d8605a57ba8e4bb0216bebc118b6c6e3e8a678837e6a0a211ef5b243a2d5546","sec:f398acede8ba0a6651e03115e1ed93a3c24084b9a2d3915d4885dd9d73717199"]`
growth_yoy (capex) `capex`	GOOGL	100.142564376726 %	-	2026-06-30 (80d)	VERIFIED	AI CapEx Snapshot capex-v1; derived; AVAILABLE.quantity projection	`["sec:138a3794696202289b8a3b951705272e55da596d1f54aaf7e82f2aa98b7b1209","sec:15932ffd105be872e0ff9ed02878f1b2e10e88567e2303a17ff809e45e8e3940","sec:d945341977f1fdcbff7b0521332cee3fcd4cc70cdbc35b20d38194cda7305c1d","sec:e1cfa0c50ccbaffc9fcd7c326dec6c406300dfdaab5d7b138c8837ecda115740","GOOGL.capex_quarter"]`
fcf_ocf_minus_capex (fcf_ocf_minus_capex) `fcf_ocf_minus_capex`	GOOGL	-5.855 USD_B	-	2026-06-30 (80d)	VERIFIED	AI CapEx Snapshot capex-v1; derived; AVAILABLE.quantity projection	`["sec:5f4421ba6497029d8e1276a42ecbe9c01880d9dbe111b576a37c892ac136183b","sec:93b4babd5b15f78e79851242ef55c95cc9fcfc076fe6c6f596ff0b4a053fb91f","sec:d945341977f1fdcbff7b0521332cee3fcd4cc70cdbc35b20d38194cda7305c1d","sec:e1cfa0c50ccbaffc9fcd7c326dec6c406300dfdaab5d7b138c8837ecda115740","GOOGL.capex_quarter","GOOGL.ocf_quarter"]`
capex_to_ocf_ratio (capex_to_ocf_ratio) `capex_to_ocf_ratio`	GOOGL	1.149863062786 ratio	-	2026-06-30 (80d)	VERIFIED	AI CapEx Snapshot capex-v1; derived; AVAILABLE.quantity projection	`["sec:5f4421ba6497029d8e1276a42ecbe9c01880d9dbe111b576a37c892ac136183b","sec:93b4babd5b15f78e79851242ef55c95cc9fcfc076fe6c6f596ff0b4a053fb91f","sec:d945341977f1fdcbff7b0521332cee3fcd4cc70cdbc35b20d38194cda7305c1d","sec:e1cfa0c50ccbaffc9fcd7c326dec6c406300dfdaab5d7b138c8837ecda115740","GOOGL.capex_quarter","GOOGL.ocf_quarter"]`
standalone_quarter (depreciation) `depreciation`	AMZN	13.869 USD_B	-	2026-06-30 (80d)	VERIFIED	AI CapEx Snapshot capex-v1; reported_quarter; AVAILABLE.quantity projection	`["sec:3ae9eb1bf1d51ea90f5a9866cad1948e7ac327a6b96065fc53e1dc17eb2979be"]`
fcf_ocf_minus_capex (fcf_ocf_minus_capex) `fcf_ocf_minus_capex`	AMZN	-8.821 USD_B	-	2026-06-30 (80d)	VERIFIED	AI CapEx Snapshot capex-v1; derived; AVAILABLE.quantity projection	`["sec:f4c091a3839547bd7a3d3dcec1db58f7e5886bafd638b814c286772fed19ae04","sec:f8d0442a0e88cffba9a64049364838d10c3adb8768b4aae63e98d728ae8028c4","AMZN.capex_quarter","AMZN.ocf_quarter"]`
capex_to_ocf_ratio (capex_to_ocf_ratio) `capex_to_ocf_ratio`	AMZN	1.194350805297 ratio	-	2026-06-30 (80d)	VERIFIED	AI CapEx Snapshot capex-v1; derived; AVAILABLE.quantity projection	`["sec:f4c091a3839547bd7a3d3dcec1db58f7e5886bafd638b814c286772fed19ae04","sec:f8d0442a0e88cffba9a64049364838d10c3adb8768b4aae63e98d728ae8028c4","AMZN.capex_quarter","AMZN.ocf_quarter"]`
standalone_quarter (capex) `capex`	META	30.116 USD_B	-	2026-06-30 (80d)	VERIFIED	AI CapEx Snapshot capex-v1; derived_quarter; AVAILABLE.quantity projection	`["sec:06ee3b696df43c5d6426d4ee15b2391c5e2d0d0cda45072f94acc98b65520117","sec:ff0df51815752df8f9331e8791fc1c6047cc6acbc4a5ab9f01980340a8e4592e"]`
standalone_quarter (ocf) `ocf`	META	31.862 USD_B	-	2026-06-30 (80d)	VERIFIED	AI CapEx Snapshot capex-v1; derived_quarter; AVAILABLE.quantity projection	`["sec:3a5a1a9f5fa381e3769754b88434c1d16f6dc49a0a078714d7a94feacd10e185","sec:8191d39d4a7c21235472660d2238373f6a97569136d9f88ff37707d62fd668bb"]`
standalone_quarter (da) `da`	META	6.356 USD_B	-	2026-06-30 (80d)	VERIFIED	AI CapEx Snapshot capex-v1; derived_quarter; AVAILABLE.quantity projection	`["sec:3082f66fa1581bd856bddec7b135532989eb4b3f87c82e53f7d435c3d3eb96a2","sec:86f75e7ccf0ce5523fc9c1af9d7d7eca1f9cd7d2e975309aca5451288e33ed1c"]`
growth_yoy (capex) `capex`	META	82.101826097472 %	-	2026-06-30 (80d)	VERIFIED	AI CapEx Snapshot capex-v1; derived; AVAILABLE.quantity projection	`["sec:06ee3b696df43c5d6426d4ee15b2391c5e2d0d0cda45072f94acc98b65520117","sec:1d1ac17cc1b2c1433f4be1e46d8180969db97f3f0df6b56d61b63e92506cb7db","sec:e86d70efa3ddac361986b196bfe380b79666bca6810a00aefe52410cfe3ea988","sec:ff0df51815752df8f9331e8791fc1c6047cc6acbc4a5ab9f01980340a8e4592e","META.capex_quarter"]`
fcf_ocf_minus_capex (fcf_ocf_minus_capex) `fcf_ocf_minus_capex`	META	1.746 USD_B	-	2026-06-30 (80d)	VERIFIED	AI CapEx Snapshot capex-v1; derived; AVAILABLE.quantity projection	`["sec:06ee3b696df43c5d6426d4ee15b2391c5e2d0d0cda45072f94acc98b65520117","sec:3a5a1a9f5fa381e3769754b88434c1d16f6dc49a0a078714d7a94feacd10e185","sec:8191d39d4a7c21235472660d2238373f6a97569136d9f88ff37707d62fd668bb","sec:ff0df51815752df8f9331e8791fc1c6047cc6acbc4a5ab9f01980340a8e4592e","META.capex_quarter","META.ocf_quarter"]`
capex_to_ocf_ratio (capex_to_ocf_ratio) `capex_to_ocf_ratio`	META	0.945201180089 ratio	-	2026-06-30 (80d)	VERIFIED	AI CapEx Snapshot capex-v1; derived; AVAILABLE.quantity projection	`["sec:06ee3b696df43c5d6426d4ee15b2391c5e2d0d0cda45072f94acc98b65520117","sec:3a5a1a9f5fa381e3769754b88434c1d16f6dc49a0a078714d7a94feacd10e185","sec:8191d39d4a7c21235472660d2238373f6a97569136d9f88ff37707d62fd668bb","sec:ff0df51815752df8f9331e8791fc1c6047cc6acbc4a5ab9f01980340a8e4592e","META.capex_quarter","META.ocf_quarter"]`
growth_yoy (hyperscaler_capex) `hyperscaler_capex`	-	87.03397321125 %	-	2026-06-30 (80d)	VERIFIED	AI CapEx Snapshot capex-v1; derived; AVAILABLE.quantity projection	["sec:06ee3b696df43c5d6426d4ee15b2391c5e2d0d0cda45072f94acc98b65520117","sec:138a3794696202289b8a3b951705272e55da596d1f54aaf7e82f2aa98b7b1209","sec:15932ffd105be872e0ff9ed02878f1b2e10e88567e2303a17ff809e45e8e3940","sec:1a5dfeb790e9d8ef780a8d9873887ac5f0a507a07a36dcc0117da0c203b9d4be","sec:1d1ac17cc1b2c1433f4be1e46d8180969db97f3f0df6b56d61b63e92506cb7db","sec:1db2893cbd4eb65d63ab1948ef4a71393e81cc49e78e9354b340e07ed6a45c4d","sec:43ba668f79a8390de9bfc9964a6c835d002a1de9284d7c7563eef6e74d92b45c","sec:9ebdcc0353a5354479e8c9690d45222d3045555731957e5c8e80998bdf322f72","sec:c8007f9e1d2d26266c66a1dcc48ab4059537d8dd99de79970fe7806e824a0731","sec:d945341977f1fdcbff7b0521332cee3fcd4cc70cdbc35b20d38194cda7305c1d","sec:e1cfa0c50ccbaffc9fcd7c326dec6c406300dfdaab5d7b138c8837ecda115740","sec:e86d70efa3ddac361986b196bfe380b79666bca6810a00aefe52410cfe3ea988","sec:f8d0442a0e88cffba9a64049364838d10c3adb8768b4aae63e98d728ae8028c4","sec:ff0df51815752df8f9331e8791fc1c6047cc6acbc4a5ab9f01980340a8e4592e","AMZN.capex_quarter","GOOGL.capex_quarter","META.capex_quarter","MSFT.capex_quarter"]
capex_to_ocf_ratio (capex_to_ocf_ratio) `capex_to_ocf_ratio`	-	0.960939455865 ratio	-	2026-06-30 (80d)	VERIFIED	AI CapEx Snapshot capex-v1; derived; AVAILABLE.quantity projection	["sec:06ee3b696df43c5d6426d4ee15b2391c5e2d0d0cda45072f94acc98b65520117","sec:378dcf11ecf96bf81ee4a8fa7d60567647abb4080b4ed92239425fb046fc6e95","sec:3a5a1a9f5fa381e3769754b88434c1d16f6dc49a0a078714d7a94feacd10e185","sec:43ba668f79a8390de9bfc9964a6c835d002a1de9284d7c7563eef6e74d92b45c","sec:5f4421ba6497029d8e1276a42ecbe9c01880d9dbe111b576a37c892ac136183b","sec:8191d39d4a7c21235472660d2238373f6a97569136d9f88ff37707d62fd668bb","sec:93b4babd5b15f78e79851242ef55c95cc9fcfc076fe6c6f596ff0b4a053fb91f","sec:bdc3f08d97abe3d99c883a0434a1b89ebd5c9e672c5ff64818be0db823032495","sec:c8007f9e1d2d26266c66a1dcc48ab4059537d8dd99de79970fe7806e824a0731","sec:d945341977f1fdcbff7b0521332cee3fcd4cc70cdbc35b20d38194cda7305c1d","sec:e1cfa0c50ccbaffc9fcd7c326dec6c406300dfdaab5d7b138c8837ecda115740","sec:f4c091a3839547bd7a3d3dcec1db58f7e5886bafd638b814c286772fed19ae04","sec:f8d0442a0e88cffba9a64049364838d10c3adb8768b4aae63e98d728ae8028c4","sec:ff0df51815752df8f9331e8791fc1c6047cc6acbc4a5ab9f01980340a8e4592e","AMZN.capex_quarter","AMZN.ocf_quarter","GOOGL.capex_quarter","GOOGL.ocf_quarter","META.capex_quarter","META.ocf_quarter","MSFT.capex_quarter","MSFT.ocf_quarter"]

AI CapEx Snapshot 欄位狀態

公司 / 合計	欄位	狀態	當期數值	期間	阻塞原因
MSFT	capex_reported	AVAILABLE	115.948 USD_B	2025-07-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
MSFT	capex_quarter	AVAILABLE	35.802 USD_B	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
MSFT	ocf_reported	AVAILABLE	182.935 USD_B	2025-07-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
MSFT	ocf_quarter	AVAILABLE	55.441 USD_B	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
MSFT	da_reported	MISSING_INPUT	-	-	REQUIRED_OBSERVATION_MISSING: MSFT.da_reported
MSFT	da_quarter	MISSING_INPUT	-	-	REQUIRED_OBSERVATION_MISSING: MSFT.da_quarter
MSFT	depreciation_reported	AVAILABLE	34.3 USD_B	2025-07-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
MSFT	depreciation_quarter	AVAILABLE	10.3 USD_B	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
MSFT	capex_yoy	AVAILABLE	109.625856314773 %	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
MSFT	fcf_ocf_minus_capex	AVAILABLE	19.639 USD_B	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
MSFT	capex_to_ocf_ratio	AVAILABLE	0.645767572735 ratio	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
GOOGL	capex_reported	AVAILABLE	80.598 USD_B	2026-01-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
GOOGL	capex_quarter	AVAILABLE	44.924 USD_B	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
GOOGL	ocf_reported	AVAILABLE	84.859 USD_B	2026-01-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
GOOGL	ocf_quarter	AVAILABLE	39.069 USD_B	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
GOOGL	da_reported	MISSING_INPUT	-	-	REQUIRED_OBSERVATION_MISSING: GOOGL.da_reported
GOOGL	da_quarter	MISSING_INPUT	-	-	REQUIRED_OBSERVATION_MISSING: GOOGL.da_quarter
GOOGL	depreciation_reported	AVAILABLE	13.586 USD_B	2026-01-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
GOOGL	depreciation_quarter	AVAILABLE	7.104 USD_B	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
GOOGL	capex_yoy	AVAILABLE	100.142564376726 %	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
GOOGL	fcf_ocf_minus_capex	AVAILABLE	-5.855 USD_B	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
GOOGL	capex_to_ocf_ratio	AVAILABLE	1.149863062786 ratio	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
AMZN	capex_reported	INCOMPATIBLE	-	-	AMBIGUOUS_OBSERVATION: AMZN.capex_reported
AMZN	capex_quarter	AVAILABLE	54.208 USD_B	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
AMZN	ocf_reported	INCOMPATIBLE	-	-	AMBIGUOUS_OBSERVATION: AMZN.ocf_reported
AMZN	ocf_quarter	AVAILABLE	45.387 USD_B	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
AMZN	da_reported	INCOMPATIBLE	-	-	AMBIGUOUS_OBSERVATION: AMZN.da_reported
AMZN	da_quarter	AVAILABLE	19.988 USD_B	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
AMZN	depreciation_reported	AVAILABLE	26.703 USD_B	2026-01-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
AMZN	depreciation_quarter	AVAILABLE	13.869 USD_B	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
AMZN	capex_yoy	AVAILABLE	68.436752322655 %	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
AMZN	fcf_ocf_minus_capex	AVAILABLE	-8.821 USD_B	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
AMZN	capex_to_ocf_ratio	AVAILABLE	1.194350805297 ratio	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
META	capex_reported	AVAILABLE	49.113 USD_B	2026-01-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
META	capex_quarter	AVAILABLE	30.116 USD_B	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
META	ocf_reported	AVAILABLE	64.088 USD_B	2026-01-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
META	ocf_quarter	AVAILABLE	31.862 USD_B	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
META	da_reported	AVAILABLE	12.355 USD_B	2026-01-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
META	da_quarter	AVAILABLE	6.356 USD_B	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
META	depreciation_reported	AVAILABLE	11.67 USD_B	2026-01-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
META	depreciation_quarter	INCOMPATIBLE	-	-	DIRECT_DERIVED_CONFLICT: META.depreciation_quarter
META	capex_yoy	AVAILABLE	82.101826097472 %	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
META	fcf_ocf_minus_capex	AVAILABLE	1.746 USD_B	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
META	capex_to_ocf_ratio	AVAILABLE	0.945201180089 ratio	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
aggregate	capex_yoy	AVAILABLE	87.03397321125 %	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-
aggregate	capex_to_ocf_ratio	AVAILABLE	0.960939455865 ratio	2026-04-01 ~ 2026-06-30	-

非 AVAILABLE 為資料狀態，不表示投資風險；STALE 保留證據不作為當期數值。

policy_required_disclosure coverage: 4/4; blocked: -

depreciation coverage: 3/4; blocked: META

da coverage: 2/4; blocked: MSFT, GOOGL

capex_yoy coverage: 4/4; blocked: -

capex_to_ocf_ratio coverage: 4/4; blocked: -

口徑說明：當公司以純折舊 (Depreciation) 申報時，以 metric_id="depreciation" 存儲且排除攤銷；以完整折舊攤提申報時以 metric_id="da" 存儲。Research-Defined FCF (OCF − CapEx) 為研究自定義衍生特徵。

8. AI 單位經濟學 (AI Unit Economics)

上游研究契約尚未提供 AI 單位經濟學結構化內容。

4. AI 需求代理與半導體供應鏈 (AI Demand & Semiconductor Proxy) Section 6, 7

6. NVIDIA 營收快照 (NVIDIA Revenue Snapshot)

範圍說明：本章目前僅涵蓋 NVIDIA 總營收快照，半導體供應鏈完整指標尚未接入。

指標名稱 / ID	實體	維度	數值	觀測日 / 期間	狀態	來源	備註 / 口徑
Total Revenue `revenue`	NVDA	10-Q, 2026-08-26	96.221 USD_B	2026-04-27 ~ 2026-07-26 [FY2027Q2]	VERIFIED	SEC EDGAR `0001045810-26-000075` [來源連結]	Form 10-Q standardized XBRL concept Revenues (filed 2026-08-26, duration: 90 days)

本章節無衍生特徵資料。

7. AI 基礎設施需求代理 (AI Infrastructure Demand Proxy)

範圍說明：以 NVIDIA Data Center 平台營收作為 AI 基礎設施需求代理，屬產品/服務別拆解，非 GAAP reportable segment。

指標名稱 / ID	實體	維度	數值	觀測日 / 期間	狀態	來源	備註 / 口徑
Data Center Market Platform Revenue `revenue`	NVDA	Data Center	89.023 USD_B	- ~ 2026-07-26	VERIFIED	SEC EDGAR `0001045810-26-000075:R67.htm` [來源連結]	Form 10-Q Schedule of Revenue by Market Platform (R67.htm): Data Center revenue, 3 months ended 2026-07-26 (filed 2026-08-26). Market platform disaggregation, not a GAAP reportable segment.

本章節無衍生特徵資料。

5. 系統性風險燈號、情境推演與觀察 (Risks, Scenarios & Observations) Section 9, 11, 13, 14

11. 系統性風險燈號 (Risk Semaphore)

當前燈號: ORANGE

US 10YEAR Treasury Yield >= 5.0% (當前: 5.01) [TRIGGERED] 10Y Real Yield (TIPS, DFII10) >= 2.5% (當前: 2.61) [TRIGGERED]

9. 融資、估值與 IPO 市場 (Financing, Valuations & IPOs)

上游研究契約尚未提供二級估值與 IPO 結構化內容。

13. 情境分析 (Scenario Analysis)

上游研究契約尚未提供情境分析結構化推論 (Scenario Analysis not provided in current payload)。

14. Top 8 可執行觀察 (Top 8 Actionable Observations)

上游研究契約尚未提供可執行觀察結構化內容 (Actionable Observations not provided in current payload)。

6. 評分方法論、數據血統與審計核對 (Methodology, Scoring & Lineage) Section 10, Lineage

10. 泡沫評分審計核對 (AI Market Environment & CapEx Pressure Index Audit)

因子維度	輸入數值	命中規則	得分	滿分
Capex Intensity	87.03397321125%	87.03% * 0.15 = 13.1 pts	13.1	20.0
Rate Pressure	5.01%	>= 4.7%	15.0	20.0
Credit Complacency	2.7%	<= 2.8%	13.0	15.0
Market Concentration	33.06%	>= 32.0%	15.0	15.0
Demand Scissor Gap	-	CapEx to Cloud Rev ratio * 7.5 (max 15.0 pts)	-	15.0
Volatility Sentiment	15.44index_points	<= 17.0	8.0	15.0

評分公式：原始得分 (64.1 / 85.0) / 可用滿分 (85.0) × 100 = 75.4